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2011 EM fixed income trends

January 03, 2011 | Cbonds

JP Morgan in its Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy for 2011 forecasts EM corporate, quasi sovereign and sovereign issuance totalling US$240 billion in 2011 compared to US$280 billion in 2010. EM sovereign and corporate cashflows expected to total US$158 billion in 2011, while inflows to EM fixed income expected at US$70-75 billion.

According to BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, EM bond spreads should tighten in 2011, EM corporates will return less than US high-yield. BAML projects around a 10% return on U.S. high-yield bonds versus around 7% on EM corporate bonds. The credit spreads will continue tightening due to liquidity flows. BAML Global Research forecasts spreads in EM going to 275bp at year-end 2011 from 355bp in December, EM high grade at 180bp (from 245bp) and EM high yield at 520bp (from 665bp).

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